This is a summary of the Greek Parliamentary election results since 1974. It is presented in charts covering three periods. Each chart shows the percentage of the popular vote that was received by each section of the electorate.
The period 1974 – 1990 marks the formation of the post – dictatorship era.
The period 1993 – 2009 is characterized by the dominance of the New Democracy, the stronghold of the right, and PASOK, the powerhouse of the center-left.
The period 2012 – 2023 is the one where the patterns and certainties of the previous two periods have disappeared. This significant change of the political landscape has been confirmed in the elections of 21/05/2023 and 25/06/2023.
The following sections are included:
Right. New Democracy is the party that dominates the right and today covers a significant part of the center.
Center. The center party EK disappeared after the 1977 elections. Most of its supporters moved over to PASOK.
Center-Left. PASOK has been the dominant party of the center-left in Greek politics until 2009.
Left. This section includes the Communist Party of Greece, SYRIZA, and some opportunistic and marginal formations that do not have longevity.
Extreme Right. This is a section that has been revived since 2012. It includes formations to the right of the “New Democracy” party.
From 1974 to 1990
The major developments in this period are the following. • “New Democracy”, the party founded by Konstantinos Karamanlis after the restitution of democracy in 1974, dominated the political scene in the two elections of 1974 and 1977. It lost power in the period 1981 – 1989, to retail it in the period 1989 – 1993. • PASOK became the dominant party of the center – left and was able to challenge New Democracy, seizing power in 1981. It retained it until 1989, when it lost it. • “Union of the Center”, the party of the “center”, received 20% in 1974, and then fell to 12% in 1977 vanishing into insignificance in the elections that followed. • The parties of the left, including the communists, maintained a percentage around 12%. • Apart from 1977, the extreme right did not receive a percentage above 2%.
From 1993 to 2009
The major developments in this period are the following.
PASOK returns to power after the 1993 elections.
Andreas Papandreou dies in the summer of 1996.
His successor, Kostas Simitis wins the elections of 1996 and 2000.
Kostas Karamanlis, the leader of “New Democracy”, wins the 2004 and 2007 elections.
George Papandreou, the leader of PASOK wins the elections of 2009.
The left struggles to reach 12%
The extreme right climbs to 6% of the popular vote in the 2009 elections.
From 2012 to 2023
The major developments in this period are the following.
• In the first 2012 elections, the left gets more votes than the right. • This will continue until the 2019 elections. • In 2023 the right reverses the previous trend and gets more votes than the left. • The extreme right becomes a significant force in Greek politics. • PASOK shows signals of a slow recovery, but still has a long way to go.
After a spectacular rise and a stint in government (2015-2019), SYRIZA is in 2023 almost down to the level of 2012.
Σήμερα (17 Οκτωβρίου 2018) παραιτήθηκε ο Υπουργός Εξωτερικών της Ελλάδος κ. Νίκος Κοτζιάς. Κατόπιν τούτου η πορεία της χώρας είναι οριστικά προεκλογική.
Ο Πρωθυπουργός κ. Τσίπρας προστάτευσε την Κυβερνητική Συμμαχία για να προλάβει να εφαρμόσει μια σειρά από μέτρα που θα ανακουφίσουν τα ασθενέστερα οικονομικά στρώματα. Όλα αυτά θα γίνουν λίγο πριν/ λίγο μετά τα Χριστούγεννα. Μέχρι τα τέλη Ιανουαρίου 2019 θα έχουν ολοκληρωθεί. Εκείνη τη χρονική στιγμή θα είναι έτοιμος για να προχωρήσει σε εκλογές.
Η απαξίωση του κ. Κοτζιά, που τον οδήγησε στην παραίτηση του, καταδεικνύει την δευτερεύουσα σημασία που έχει πλέον για τον κ. Τσίπρα στη φάση αυτή η οριστικοποίηση της συμφωνίας για τα Σκόπια. Δεν συμφέρει τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ η οιαδήποτε συσχέτιση των εκλογών με το Σκοπιανό.
Οι ΗΠΑ φαίνεται ότι είναι ικανοποιημένες με την προοπτική αμυντικής συμμαχίας στα Βαλκάνια ανεξάρτητα από την συμφωνία ανάμεσα στα Σκόπια και την Αθήνα για την ονομασία, και τα άλλα σχετικά, οπότε δεν πιέζουν πλέον. Ο κ. Κοτζιάς εξήντλησε την χρηστικότητα του.
Στόχος είναι επομένως η αποσύνδεση των δύο διαδικασιών των εκλογών και της συμφωνίας με τα Σκόπια, που μάλλον θα επιδρούσε αρνητικά στην κάλπη για τον κ. Τσίπρα.
Επίσης, δεν έχει νόημα να περιμένει τον Μάϊο 2019 διότι το πιο πιθανό είναι ότι θα υπάρξουν εξελίξεις αρνητικές, και διόλου θετικές στην οικονομία.
Το πλέον πιθανό είναι ότι ο κ. Τσίπρας θα καλέσει τους Έλληνες και τις Ελληνίδες να τον ψηφίσουν για μία ακόμη φορά με νωπές τις παροχές, και στο απώτερο βάθος το Σκοπιανό.
Αν το σενάριο αυτό προκύψει, θα έχουμε βουλευτικές εκλογές το αργότερο μέχρι την 25η Μαρτίου 2019.
Σε κάθε περίπτωση, τα γεγονότα που ολοκληρώθηκαν με την η παραίτηση Κοτζιά αναδεικνύουν τον κ. Τσίπρα ως ικανό χειριστή της πολιτικής κατάστασης. Έχει την ικανότητα να λαμβάνει αποφάσεις που εκτιμά ότι συμβάλουν στην επίτευξη του στόχου του, που είναι η διατήρηση στην εξουσία.
Επισημαίνω ότι η αντιπολίτευση φαίνεται ότι έχει υποτιμήσει τον κ. Τσίπρα στο θέμα αυτό.
Είναι μια ευκαιρία λοιπόν για τους αρχηγούς των αντιπολιτευομένων κομμάτων να επανεκτιμήσουν την όλη τους τακτική απέναντι στον κ. Τσίπρα. Δεν κάνω λόγο για στρατηγική, γιατί κάτι τέτοιο δεν υπάρχει στα βιβλία της αντιπολίτευσης.
I wrote an arrticle in CNN Greece on the next general elections in Greece. I consider two scenarios and evaluate them taking into account the level of uncertainty applicable to each.The article is in Greek.
Έγραψα ένα άρθρο στο CNN Greece για τις επόμενες γενικές εκλογές. Παρουσιάζω δύο σενάρια, και λαμβάνω υπόψη τον βαθμό αβεβαιότητας που έχει το καθένα. Το άρθρο είναι στα Ελληνικά.
I wrote an article trying to answer the question whether SYRIZA, the political party ruling Greece today will be able to last for the full four years of their term, or there will be early elections.
On the day the new Government of Greece is sworn in office, I would like to offer some post facto notes on the General Elections of September 2015.
1. The majority of the voters ‘bought’ the ‘OLD-YOUNG’ dilemma and voted Mr. Tsipras as the ‘YOUNG’ Prime Minister and SYRIZA as the ‘untainted’ party to lead the country out of its current misery. Many analysts interpreted the vote as a vote in favor of the ‘left’. I do not think this is the case. The vote was a vote in favor of a leader and a party who have ‘clean hands’, which means no responsibility whatsoever for the bankruptcy of Greece.
2. Inversely, the majority of the voters did not ‘buy’ the ‘ALL TOGETHER’ approach of center-right ‘New Democracy’ and Mr. Meimarakis. They were outvoted as they were considered an integral component of the establishment that is responsible for the troubles of Greece.
3. The neo-nazis of ‘GOLDEN DAWN’ increased their share of votes and are the third strongest party in Parliament.
4. The appeal of ‘pluralistic’ but rudderless ‘POTAMI’ is fading away.
5. Social-democratic ‘PASOK’ is now well above the 3% mark.
6. The ‘freak’ party of Mr. Leventis is in Parliament for the first time in its history.
It would be a mistake to assume that Mr. Tsipras’ work will be easy. I believe it will be almost Heraclean in scope and importance.
Voters can switch very quickly in an unstable political situation.
The developments of the next months will be the outcome of the ability of Mr. Tsipras to implement reforms in the Greek State and attract foreign direct investment, while containing the reaction of the Greeks to the measures of the third agreement, most notably the increased taxes of all types, and the severe reduction of the monthly pension amounts.
A lot of noise is made about the restructuring of the loans to Greece, but I am afraid that this is premature in the eyes of the creditors, and it is now time to listen to what the creditors say.
The creditors of Greece need to see some quick wins and solid progress in the program to restructure and reform the Greek State, keeping the overall program on track. Only once this is done, there can be a discussion on the restructuring of the loans.
Therefore a lot depends on the new Government’s ability to execute agreed upon actions and implement measures, rather than play political and public relations games internally and externally. The grace period given to Mr. Tsipras by both sides, the creditors and the Greek people, is now running out. Both sides need to see results.
If the Government manages to deliver, they can take all the credit, and quite deservedly so. If, on the other hand, there are no results, there will be no one other to blame, but Mr. Tsipras and SYRIZA.
While Mr. Tsipras will be fighting the battle of his life, ‘New Democracy’ will be trying to sort out their leadership issues. If one thing is certain, is that they need to revive their pitch as the center-right party of Greece, and elect a strong and robust leader, if they are to recover their position as the political party of the majority of the Greek people.
One day before Greek citizens go to the polls for the third time in 2015, I would like to offer some thoughts on the Greek General Elections. To express them I have borrowed some quotes from Geoffrey Hawthorn’s book “Thucydides on Politics: Back to the present”. Hawthorn offers a brilliant and refreshing political reading of Thucydides that is relevant to modern politics.
The EU Summit agreement of 12th July 2015
“… people engaged in politics and war often do not have a full sense of what they are doing and why.” (1, p.16)
“…also in his (Thucydides) portrayal of individuals, who are invariably complex, often contradictory and in their thoughts and actions governed more by circumstance than any ideology or theory would easily allow.” (1, p.15)
There have been so many attempts to explain why Mr. Tsipras, the leader of SYRIZA and Prime Minister at the time, signed the third agreement of Greece with her creditors, especially given the fact that less than a week before, the Greek People had ‘rejected’ a similar agreement by a 61-39 vote. The view that an individual’s thoughts and actions are governed more by circumstance than any ideology or theory would easily allow, provides a simple explanation.
During the campaign that leads to tomorrow’s elections, Mr. Tsipras and SYRIZA have tried to give another explanation of what has happened, along the lines of reaching an honorable compromise, under extreme pressure exerted by the creditors.
“Men assumed the right to reverse the usual values in the application of words to actions.” (2, 3.82.4)
The vote in January and July 2015
” … people are always disposed to ‘indulge in uncritical hope for what they want but use their sovereign powers of reason to reject what they would prefer to avoid.” (1, p.15)
The General Elections of January 2015 and the Referendum of July 2015 reflect the people’s hope to ‘escape’ from the obligations of Greece’s agreements with her creditors, and return to ‘normality’. This comes five years after the first agreement was signed, and while Greece is still in the midst of a severe economic crisis. The winners of the January 2015 elections, SYRIZA, were able to take full advantage of the ‘uncritical hope’ (the key word in SYRIZA’s January campaign was ‘HOPE’) of the people, and engaged their ‘sovereign powers’ in the July 2015 Referendum. Will SYRIZA be able to do the same in September 2015?
This depends on how the majority of Greek citizens have decoded the events of 2015. In their current politicla campaign, SYRIZA have played on the theme of being the ‘NEW’, fighting the ‘OLD’. The ‘new’ is unspoiled, virtuous, full of hope. The ‘old’ is spoiled, compromised, and the source of the disaster Greece faces. If the voters ‘buy’ this, then SYRIZA will be the first party on Monday morning. This ‘NEW-OLD’ dichotomy is also the key reason why SYRIZA do not wish to form an alliance government with “New Democracy”, the only other contender to win the election. The ‘new’ cannot cohabitate with the ‘old’. Therefore no ‘alliance’.
The opposite is the approach followed by the other contender, ‘New Democracy’. They recognize that mistakes have been made, but do not demonize the past. They openly promote an ‘alliance’ government, supported by most of the parties of the so-called ‘democratic arch’, which excludes the fascist party of ‘Golden Dawn’.
What is going to happen after the elections?
“…events would continue to move in unexpected ways and that those involved in them would continue to be as wise, foolish, surprised, delighted, frightened and cast down as those in his (Thucydides) own story…” (1, p.16)
We have to wait and see how the people will react to the measures required by the third agreement. The only thing that is certain is that the political situation in Greece will continue to be fragile and susceptible to sudden changes. No one should assume that the results of the September elections are going to settle anything. Which raises the question “Why were these elections called?”. But this is a question for another time.
References
1. Geoffrey Hawthorn, “Thucydides on Politics: Back to the Present”, Kindle Edition
Following my earlier post on the January 2015 parliamentary elections in Greece, I would like to add some more thoughts regarding the second elections (March/April 2015) and the political implications for some of the political parties.
First of all, it is quite interesting that as we approach the 25th January, political parties and analysts alike seem to be certain that there will be no second elections. I emphasize this because it seems to me to be the epitomy of shortsightedness and hypocricy.
In order to make it appear that SYRIZA will be able to form a government, all of a sudden they are no longer the bad kids on the block. They could be right in some things, they mean well, and so on. All of these are abstract generalities of no substance, and most important there is no discussion on the political positions of the parties and the interests and concerns of the electorate. Now we are told that the electorate does not want second elections. A few weeks ago we were told that the electorate did not want any elections.
We are told by the Minister of Finance that if SYRIZA gets elected, our creditors will consider giving Greece an extension of two months to wrap up the troika moratorium, provided that Greece asks for it. Today this reads more like a six month extension.
All of a sudden PASOK, POTAMI and ANEL – not the Communist Party, Golden Dawn and New Democracy – are open to discuss cooperation with SYRIZA.
One wonders why PASOK, POTAMI and ANEL are extending a week before the election a hand of cooperation to SYRIZA.
SYRIZA, on the other hand, seem to be fully aware of the fact that their only chance of governing Greece is the 25th January 2015. If they do not get absolute majority alone or with another party they will never govern the country.
It seems to me that this change of attitude and behaviour is not genuine, but a diversion.
The parties are for different reasons appearing as cooperative and supportive of a coalition government including SYRIZA for two basic reasons. The first is that they want to divert attention form some internal developments and the other is that they want to attract more voters, by appearing as cooperative.
Let us consider each of these parties, starting with PASOK.
PASOK faces serious problems. IThe formation of George Papandreou’s new political party will take many votes away from PASOK who already suffered catastrophic results in the Euroelections of 2014. A bad result (below 7%) will have major impact on the party and may lead to its disappearance from mainstream politics. This leads the leadership of Mr. Venizelos to attempt to position PASOK as the guarrantor of a coalition government and even suggest to the voters that in order for a coalition to be strong they must vote for PASOK, so that it becomes the broker of a stable cooperative effort to govern the country. This reminds me of Genscher’s Free Democratic PArty in Germany. The attempt is clear, but in my view it will remain an attempt. PASOK lacks the credibility to become the broker of a coalition government in Greece. Not only that, the position of Mr. Venizelos in the party after the 25th January 2015 is questionable. It is most likely that Mr. Venizelos will step down from the presidency of PASOK.
POTAMI are equally eager to convince the voters that they are so nice and polite guys that they will do whatever it takes to form a coalition government, provided of course that it does not go against their political programme. This opportunism is working in favour of POTAMI as they appeal primarily to undecided voters from the right to the left, who do not want to vote for the two main contenders, New Democracy and SYRIZA.
Something similar is also said by PASOK. We will cooperate, provided that our political programme is respected.
POTAMI threw in yesterday a variance of the coalition position. They said that they may not participate in a SYRIZA-led government, but they will give it a vote of confidence, provided that their conditions will be met.
ANEL, the party led by Mr. Kammenos, is the only one of the three that maintains a steady position. They say that they have major differences with SYRIZA but, they are equally opposed to the memorandum of Greece with the “troika” creditors and threfore will discuss with SYRIZA the formation of a government. Mr. Kammenos is playing a smart game. He knows very well that the only political capital he has is his opposition ot the memorandum and he is trying to cash in on it by piggybagging on SYRIZA’s win. The catch is that in spite of all good intentions, S?YRIZA and ANEL combined will not have enough seats to give the needed vote of confidence to a new government of Greece.
The party of George Papandreou continues to be in the twilight zone between 2% and 3%. If things remain the same, he will not have any seats in the new parliament. But I believe that he will eventually get more than 3% of the national vote. Mr. PApandreou is not very vocal about a coalition with SYRIZA, he is very busy trying to re-establish his reputation as a politicla leader who cares for the people.
I have tried to give some explanations of the recently expressed strong desire by some of the parties to form a coalition government with SYRIZA, following the 25th January elections.
As a similar positive turn has occured amaong political analysts and journalists, I can only say that they relaised that scaremongering is not going to have an effect and decided to “keep their enemy closer than their friend”.
Interestingly, they do not discuss the most likely outcome of the elections, which is that we will have a second round of elections following the election of the new president of the Hellenic Republic. But I will not elaborate on this, there is no need. We will soon know what will happen, without the help of the esteemed analysts.
I would like now to rurn to one of the implications of the elections of the 25th January and the failure to form a government, leading to a second round of elections. I think there will be major implications in the party of New Democracy. More specifically, a change in leadership.
All moderate politicla forces inside and outside of Greece will come to the conclusion – if they have not already done so – that the regime of Mr Samaras is over. He did what he could, but his time is over. The damage his policies inflicted on the people is so big that he cannot continue being the leader of the conservative party in Greece. A change is needed at once. Luckily for the conservatives, there are many candidates for the job. As an example, the daughter of ex-prime minister Konstantinos Mitsotakis, Dora Bakoyanni.
She is well educated, experienced in politics, she is moderate in her politics and has a strong following.
I do not want to elaborate further, as the key point I am trying to make is that there will be a change in the New Democracy leadership. Whoever is the new leader, will have a tough job ahead of her/him.
Following the change in leadership, New Democracy will have to work hard to re-build bridges with political forces of the center and form a coalition government. It will not be easy, but as I wrote in my earlier post, I believe it has quite a good chance for it to happen.