Posted by Around 2300 hrs in the night of 12th February 2018, a Turkish patrol boat attempted to ram a Greek coast guard vessel near the islets of Imia, in Dodekanese.
I saw the video clip taken from the greek vessel and it is freightening. Crew members of the Greek ship were saying that they were certain that the Turkish vessel would hit them real hard.
The reason the Greek vessel escaped with a few scratches only is that the captain manouvered just in time and thus the angle of the collision was less than 20 degrees, minimizing the impact and the damage.
Following the incident, the Turkish Mistry of Foreign Affairs issued a communique stating that the islets of Imia are Turkish territory and Greece should stay away. The Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded trying to say that Immia are Greek territory, but did not say it clear enough.
At around the same time, Turkish ships blocked a drilling rig from reaching an area off Cyprus and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday issued a warning to neighboring Greece and Cyprus as well as foreign companies not to encroach on Turkey’s sovereignty.
Turkey is becoming more of a problem than Greece would like and it is clear that Greece is ambivalent. On one hand Greece avoids any confrontation and claims that Turkey is violating International Law, on the other there are voices saying that enough is enough.
Since the relevant incident of 1996 the islets of Imia have de facto become a “no go” territory for Greece, no matter what. The recent incident signals Turkey’s intention to broaden the enforcement of this informal blockade.
An explanation of Turkey’s behavior is that Mr. Erdogan is under pressure by the opposition and seeks to score points in the international arena by invading Syria and playing tough with Greece and Turkey. The proponents of this explanation claim that Mr. Erdogan does not intend do commit any real aggression, he is only talking about it. In other words, he is bluffing.
However, other than Greece itself, there is no other entity to prevent Mr. Erdogan from actually committing an act of aggression against Greece. Although Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO, should Turkey commit an act of aggression against Greece, NATO is not going to intervene and protect Greece. The US State Department is on the fence when it comes to the Greek-Turkish problem. They always say to Greece and Turkey “sort it out”, without taking sides. There is no reason why this position should change now. Especially as Mr. Tilerson has just negotiated a “joint” approach with Turkey in Syria. Greece is a member of the European Union, and Turkey is not. But Turkey has recently made it clear that joining the EU is not their priority, as a matter of fact Mr. Erdogan could not care less. He seems to be able to score more points being outside the EU, rather than being on the path to join. In addition, the EU has no military capabilities as such. Therefore, although an aggression against Greece is also an aggression against the EU, no one will do anything about it, other than talk the usual talk about International Law and so on.
Whether it is done for internal consumption or not, the fact remains that Mr. Erdogan can only gain from an act of aggression against Greece. I assume that there will be no civilians involved, and that the military engagement will be short in duration and contained in territorial terms. The symbolic value of such a potential aggression is huge. This is the reason why I assert that an aggression against Greece may materialize in the very near future.
The only negative aspect of such an event might be the response of the Greek Armed Forces.Mr. Erdogan has recently downplayed the capabilities of the Greek Armed Forces, claiming that they play tough as long as the Turkish forces are at a safe distance, but then they chicken out as soon as the Turkish fighter jets, ships and troops are within site. There is no secret that the huge economic problems that Greece is facing have had an impact on its military forces. It would be naive to assume otherwise. However, we are not talking about full scale prolonged war here, we are talking about a short and contained act of aggression. Agility, timing, risk taking, are the factors that matter rather than size and fire power.
Therefore, Mr. Erdogan may be making a mistake assuming that an act of aggression against Greece will remain unanswered.
In light of all the above, I assert that the best course of action for Greece is to call Mr. Erdogan’s bluff. Next time Turkish forces attempt to engage with Greek forces, they should face a surprise. The Greek Armed Forces can deliver a blow to Turkish Forces and they know it. It is only a matter of political approval of the engagement plans.
Calling Mr. Erdogan’s bluff in a successful way is going to have many benefits for Greece.
- It will force Mr. Erdogan to rethink his approach and potentially adopt a less aggressive approach
- It will bring military spending back to the agenda of Greek politics. It is time to proceed with bold procurement plans of the Greek Armed Forces. As an example, Greece should procure F-35 fighter jets rather than “modernize” its aging F-16 fleet.
- It will encourage Greece to be more aggressive with the EU when it comes to violations of its territory. The EU should not be left to sit on the fence for much longer.
- It will encourage Greece to be more assertive when it comes to its US relationship. This is especially important as it relates to placing various procurement orders for the Armed Forces.