Posted by Werner Bauer is a German, the fictional protagonist of this short story.
Werner wants to visit Greece in the Summer of 2020, or even later, say in the Autumn, and has asked me what I think about it.
This is a difficult one. I want Walter to visit Greece, on the other hand I do not want him to suffer undue consequences as a result of this.
Under the circumstances, I will follow a “bad scenario” approach in arriving at a suggestion. As I am not a doctor, or a scientist in the field, some of the eventualities described below may not befeasible. Nevertheless, they illustrate, taken together, the issues and the dilemmas.
Let the scenarion unfold. Werner checks negative of COVID-19 at the Duesseldorf airport, checks negative at the Munich ariport where he catches his flight to Athens, and checks negative at the Athens Airport, where he boards a plane to go to his destimation.
All is well up to this point.
Werner arrives in his destination and checks in at his hotel. Now the scenario becomes difficult.
His plan is to spend two weeks in island X and then head back home.
But Werner develops high temperature at the end of the first week of his holidays. He undergoes the COVD-19 check in island X and is found positive. The doctors decide that his condition is not serious enough for him to be hospitalized, but he must be confined to a secure place for a period of 14 days.
So Walter checks out of his hotel and is placed in a “quarantine” facility, where he is treated and closely monitored. Thank fully he responds positively to the treatment and after 14 days he is ready to return home.
Werner’s case raises questions like:
- Are there such “quarantine” facilities available today on the Greek islands?
- Are all the needed procedures, protocols, infrastructure in place so that Walter can be properly supported during his recovery?
- Is the transportation system able to cope with the uncertainty imposed on it by COVID-19?
- Is Werner’s holiday insured so that the relevant costs are covered?
- What will happen to the hotel where Werner spent one week before becoming sick?
If we add numbers to the scenario, we shall see that there are significant limits to what can be done, and the available options are limited in case of a high volume of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the foreign tourist population.
Broadening the scope, the basic question is the following: “is tourism as an industry prepared to serve a high volume of foreign visitors under the COVID-19 threat and uncertainty?”.
The fact that Greece until today has thankfully weathered relatively well the COVID-19 storm does not mean that when and if high volumes of foreign visitors arrive there will be some sort of a guarantee that things will go well. No one knows this. If anything, the COVID-19 experience to date is that we must learn to live under high levels of uncertainty.
If the above line of arguing is reasonable, the tourist industry of Greece must consider ways to minimize and manage the COVID-19 inherent risk.
Werner Bauer’s story shows that the uncertainty of serving goreign visitors is very high.It is quite likely that very few foreign visitors will venture to Greece or other tourist destinations in 2020.
On the other hand, domestic tourists present far fewer risks and their inherent uncertainty can be managed in a much better and more effective way.
In conclusion, Greece should focus on domestic tourism for whatever is left of the 2020 season, and avoid foreign tourism, which cannot be properly served under the circumstances. Werner Bauer will have to wait for next year to visit Greece.